Data Science was called “The sexiest work of the 21st Century” by the Harvard Review. Data researchers as problematic solvers and analysts identify patterns, notice developments and make fresh findings and often use real-time information, machine learning, and IA. This is where Data Science Course comes into the picture.
There is a strong demand for information researchers and qualified data scientists. Projections from IBM suggest that by 2020 the figure of information researchers will achieve 28%. In the United States alone, there will be 2,7 million positions for all US information experts. In addition, we were provided more access to detailed analyzes by strong software programs.
Dimensionless Tech offers the finest online data science course and big data coaching to meet the requirement, offering extensive course coverage and case studies, completely hands-on-driven meetings with personal attention to each individual. This assessment is a gold mine with invaluable insights. To satisfy the elevated requirement. We only provide internet LIVE instruction for instructors and not instruction in the school.
About Dimensionless Technologies
Dimensionless Technologies is a training firm providing online live training in the sector of data science. Courses include–R&P data science, deep learning, large-scale analysis. It was created in 2014, with the goal of offering quality data science training for an inexpensive cost, by 2 IITians Himanshu Arora & Kushagra Singhania. Dimensionless provides a range of internet Data Science Live lessons. Dimensionless intends to overcome the constraints by giving them the correct skillset with the correct methodology, versatile, adaptable and versatile at the correct moment, which will assist learners to create informed business choices and sail towards a successful profession.
Why Dimensionless Technologies
Experienced Faculty and Industry experts
Data science is a very vast field and hence a comprehensive grasp over this subject requires a lot of effort. With our experienced faculties, we are committed to impart quality and practical knowledge to all the learners. Our faculty through their vast experience (10 plus industry experience) in the data science industry is best suited to show the right path to all students towards their success journey on the path of data science. Our trainer’s boast of their high academic career as well (IITian’s)!
End to End domain-specific projects
We, at Dimensionless, believe that concepts can be learned best when all the theory learned in the classroom can actually be implemented. With our meticulously designed courses and projects, we make sure our students get hands-on the projects ranging from pharma, retail, and insurance domains to banking and financial sector problems! End-to-end projects make sure that students understand the entire problem-solving lifecycle in data science
Up to date and adaptive courses
All our courses have been developed based on the recent trends in data science. We have made sure to include all the industry requirements for data scientists. Courses start from level 0 and assume no prerequisites. Courses make learners traverse from basic introductions to advanced concepts gradually with the constant assistance of our experienced faculties. Courses cover all the concepts to a great depth such that learners are never left wanting for more! Our courses have something or other for everyone whether you are a beginner or a professional.
Dimensionless technologies have all the required hardware setup from running a regression equation to training a deep neural network. Our online-lab provides learners with a platform where they can execute all their projects. A laptop with bare minimum configuration (2GB RAM and Windows 7) is sufficient enough to pave your way into the world of deep learning. Pre-setup environments save a lot of time of learners in installing all the required tools. All the software requirements are loaded right in front of the accelerated learning
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Dimensionless provides classes through live interactive classes on our platform. All the classes are taken live by instructors and are not in any pre-recorded format. Such format enables our learners to keep up their learning in the comfort of their own homes. You don’t need to waste your time and expenses in any travel and can take classes from any location of your preference. Also, after each class, we provide the recorded video of it to all our learners so that they can go through it to clear all their doubts. All trainers are available to post classes to clear the doubts as well
Lifetime access to study materials
Dimensionless provides lifetime access to the learning material provided in the course. Many other course providers provide access only till the time one is continuing with classes. With all the resources available thereafter, learnings for our students will not stop even after they have taken up our entire course
Dimensionless technologies provide placement assistance to all its students. With highly experienced faculties and contacts in the industry, we make sure our students get their data science job and kick start their career. We help in all stages of placement assistance. From resume-building to final interviews, Dimensionless technologies is by your side to help you achieve all your goals
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Apart from the training, we issue a course completion certificate once the training is complete. The certificate brings credibility to the resume of the learners and will help them in fetching their data science dream jobs
Small batch sizes
We make sure that we have small batch sizes of students. Keeping the batch size small allows us to focus on students individually and impart them a better learning experience. With personalized attention, we make sure students are able to learn as much possible and helps us to clear all their doubts as well
If you want to start a profession in data science, dimensionless systems have the correct classes for you. Not just all key ideas and techniques are covered but they are also implemented and used in real-world company issues.
You can follow this link for our Big Data course! This course will equip you with the exact skills required. Packed with content, this course teaches you all about AWS tools and prepares you for your next ‘Data Engineer’ role
Machine Learning is the study of statistics and algorithms which help computers to arrive at conclusions without any external guidance, solely depending upon recurring trends and patterns in the available data.
Machine Learning follows various techniques to solve essential problems. They are as follows:
Supervised Learning – The data provided is labeled with the output variable. In the case of categorical labels, classification algorithms are used and in case of continuous labels, regression algorithms are used.
Unsupervised Learning – The data provided is unlabeled and clustering algorithms are used to identify different groups in the data.
Semi-Supervised Learning – Unlabeled data is grouped together and a new label is devised for the same. Facebook’s facial recognition is a popular example of semi-supervised learning. When the algorithm identifies that a face falls in a group of similar faces, it gets tagged with the respective person’s name if the person has been tagged even as low as twice or thrice.
Reinforcement Learning- In this case, algorithms learn using feedback from the environment they are acting upon and get rewarded for correct predictions and penalized for incorrect ones.
For the introductory stage, we will commence with supervised and unsupervised learning techniques. In fact, even highly skilled professionals who have been engaged in their work for several years, continue to research and grow their knowledge in these techniques since these are the most common and relevant to most of our problems which seek solutions.
These are the models which come under supervised learning:
Lasso and Ridge Regression
Decision Tree Regressor
Random Forest Regressor
Support Vector Regressor
Naive Bayes Classifier
Support Vector Classifier
All these models might feel extremely overwhelming and hard to grasp, but with R’s extensively diverse libraries and ease of implementation, one can literally implement these algorithms in just a few lines of code. All one needs to have is a conceptual understanding of the algorithms such that the model can be tweaked sensibly as per requirement. You can follow our Data Science course to build up your concepts from scratch to excellence.
Now let us explore this extraordinary language to enhance our machine learning experience!
What is R?
R was a language essentially developed for scientists and mathematicians/statisticians who could easily explore complex data with relative ease and track recurring patterns and trends at a much higher pace when compared to traditional techniques. With the evolution of Data Science, R took a leap and started serving the corporate and IT sector along with the academic sector. This happened when skilled statisticians and data experts started migrating into IT when they found sprouting opportunities there to harness their skills in the industry. They brought along R with themselves and set a milestone right where they stood.
Is R as Relevant as Python?
There is a constant debate as to whether Python is more competent and relevant that R. It must be made clear that this is mostly a fruitless discussion since both these languages are founding pillars of advanced Data Science and Machine Learning. R started evolving from a mathematical perspective and Python from a programming perspective, but they have come to serve the same purpose of solving analytical problems, and have competently done so for several years. It is simply one’s choice of comfort to move along with either of them.
What are the Basic Operations in R with Respect to Machine Learning?
In order to solve machine learning problems, one has to explore a bit further than plain programming. R provides a series of libraries which needs to be kept at hand while exploring myriad data in order to minimize obstacles while analysis.
R can do the following operations on Data related structures:
Vectors can be compared to lists or columns which can store a series of data of similar type. They can be compared to arrays in general programming terms. Vectors can be implemented using the following code:
Vector1 = c(93,34,6.7,10)
R supports several operations in Vectors.
Sequence Generation: sequence = c(1:100)
Appending: vector1 = c(vector1,123)
v1 = c(1,2,3,4)
v2 = c(9,8,7,6)
v1+v2 returns (10,10,10,10)
Indexing: Indexing starts with 1 in case of R.
v1 will return 1
v1[c(1,3)] will return 1st and 3rd elements (1,3)
v1[1:3] will return 1st to 3rd elements (1,2,3)
Data Frames are data structures which read data directly into memory and saves it in a tabular and readable format. It is extremely easy to create data frames in R:
Vector1 = c(1,2,3,4)
Vector2 = c(‘a’,’b’,’c’,’d’)
R supports the following operations on data frames:
The shape of the data frame (the number of rows and columns)
Unique value counts of columns
Addition of columns
Sorting based on given columns
Discovery and Deletion of Duplicates
Now let us explore data on a fundamental level with R and see a simple end to end process beginning from reading data to predicting the results. For this purpose, we will use a supervised machine learning approach for the time being.
Step 1: Read Data
quality = read.csv(‘quality.csv’)
You can collect this data from here. This data is for a classification task where the dependent variable or the variable to be predicted is ‘PoorCare’. The dataset has 14 columns overall including ‘MemberID’ which is the unique key identifier.
Step 2: Analyze the Dataset
Observe the different columns and their respective characteristics. This will help to formulate an initial idea about the data and help to devise useful techniques during the exploratory data analysis stage.
Code to get summarized description of the data:
Since this dataset is simple and small, we will not be going into a detailed analysis.
Step 3: Dividing Data into Training and Testing Sets
Every machine learning algorithm has some data it learns from and another set on which it quizzes itself to test the validity of its learning. These sets are called the training and testing sets respectively. This is how to go about creating them.
install.packages(“caTools”) #This library provides the essential functionality for splitting data
library(caTools)# Randomly split data
set.seed(88) #This is the initiation point for a random function to randomize from
This means 75% of the data will be allocated to the training set and the remaining 25% to the testing set. The variable ‘split’ now has a series of TRUE and FALSE values corresponding to samples in the record and have been randomly allocated. TRUE maps to a training set and FALSE to testing set.
#Create training and testing sets
qualityTrain = subset(quality, split == TRUE) #Selects all the records which has been assigned value ‘TRUE’ by the ‘split’ function
qualityTest = subset(quality, split == FALSE) #Selects all the records which has been assigned value ‘FALSE’ by the ‘split’ function
Step 4: Modeling
Since our problem is a classification problem, we will start with a basic supervised learning algorithm for classification: Logistic regression. The internal programming can be overlooked if need be but as was mentioned above, it is imperative to know the concept behind every model. Here is a simple overview of Logistic Regression:
Logistic regression is a linear model and follows the simple linear equation of y= mx+c. The only thing which differentiates it from a regression model is the sigmoid function which effectively divides the probability outputs and maps them to binary classes. One can even play with various thresholds to change the probability limit for classification. Multi class classification is also possible with the help of Logistic Regression and is implemented with a technique called the one-vs-all method. But that is out of scope for this article but will be taken up in another article which is a bit more advanced.
So let us train our first model!
# Logistic Regression Model
QualityLog = glm(PoorCare ~ OfficeVisits + Narcotics,data=qualityTrain, family=binomial) #The family argument specifies which model to use. ‘binomial’ means that the glm function will use a logistic regression model.
Call: glm(formula = PoorCare ~ OfficeVisits + Narcotics, family = binomial, data = qualityTrain)
Step 5: Prediction
After the model is trained on the training set, we need to see how it performs on similar data. For this, we will use the test set.
predictTest = predict(QualityLog, type = “response”, newdata = qualityTest)
To view or evaluate the results, a simple matrix called the confusion matrix can be used. It gives the count against true and predicted values:
table(qualityTest$PoorCare,predictTest >= 0.3)
#0.3 is the threshold value for the sigmoid function. If logistic regression gives probability outcome greater than 0.3, it will be predicted as belonging to class 1, otherwise 0.
0 19 5
1 2 6
From this confusion matrix, a series of evaluation metrics can be calculated. Some of the primary ones are as follows:
Based on the problem’s demand, the appropriate evaluation metric needs to be selected such that the model can be optimized accordingly and the threshold values can be decided.
This was a very simple pipeline of how a machine learning problem is solved and only offers a peek into the efficiency of R as a language.R has several more functionalities and libraries which can perform advanced tasks in few simple lines of code. It not only helps the programmers to easily accomplish desired tasks but also increases the time and memory efficiency of the code since R libraries are optimized by experts. Detailed and more in-depth discussions and explanations on various other models and their optimization techniques can be found in our Data Science courses and blogs!
Machine learning paradigm is ruled by a simple theorem known as “No Free Lunch” theorem. According to this, there is no algorithm in ML which will work best for all the problems. To state, one can not conclude that SVM is a better algorithm than decision trees or linear regression. Selection of an algorithm is dependent on the problem at hand and other factors like the size and structure of the dataset. Hence, one should try different algorithms to find a better fit for their use case
In this blog, we are going to look into the top machine learning algorithms. You should know and implement the following algorithms to find out the best one for your use case
Top 10 Best Machine Learning Algorithms
1. Linear Regression
Regression is a method used to predict numerical numbers. Regression is a statistical measure which tries to determine the power of the relation between the label-related characteristics of a single variable and other factors called autonomous (periodic attributes) variable. Regression is a statistical measure. Just as the classification is used for categorical label prediction, regression is used for ongoing value prediction. For example, we might like to anticipate the salary or potential sales of a new product based on the prices of graduates with 5-year work experience. Regression is often used to determine how the cost of an item is affected by specific variables such as product cost, interest rates, specific industries or sectors.
The linear regression tries by a linear equation to model the connection between a scalar variable and one or more explaining factors. For instance, using a linear regression model, one might want to connect the weights of people to their heights
The driver calculates a linear pattern of regression. It utilizes the model selection criterion Akaike. A test of the comparative value of fitness to statistics is the Akaike information criterion. It is based on the notion of entropy, which actually provides a comparative metric of data wasted when a specified template is used to portray the truth. The compromise between bias and variance in model building or between the precision and complexity of the model can be described.
2. Logistic Regression
Logistic regression is a classification system that predicts the categorical results variable that may take one of the restricted sets of category scores using entry factors. A binomial logistical regression is restricted to 2 binary outputs and more than 2 classes can be achieved through a multinomial logistic regression. For example, classifying binary conditions as’ safe’/’don’t-healthy’ or’ bike’ /’ vehicle’ /’ truck’ is logistic regression. Logistic regression is used to create an information category forecast for weighted entry scores by the logistic sigmoid function.
The probability of a dependent variable based on separate factors is estimated by a logistic regression model. The variable depends on the yield that we want to forecast, whereas the indigenous variables or explaining variables may affect the performance. Multiple regression means an assessment of regression with two or more independent variables. On the other side, multivariable regression relates to an assessment of regression with two or more dependent factors.
3. Linear Discriminant Analysis
Logistic regression is traditionally a two-class classification problem algorithm. If you have more than two classes, the Linear Discriminant Analysis algorithm is the favorite technique of linear classification. It contains statistical information characteristics, which are calculated for each category.
For a single input variable this includes:
The mean value for each class.
The variance calculated across all classes.
The predictions are calculated by determining a discriminating value for each class and by predicting the highest value for each class. The method implies that the information is distributed Gaussian (bell curve) so that outliers are removed from your information in advance. It is an easy and strong way to classify predictive problem modeling.
4. Classification and Regression Trees
Prediction Trees are used to forecast answer or YY class of X1, X2,…, XnX1,X2,… ,Xn entry. If the constant reaction is called a regression tree, it is called a ranking tree, if it is categorical. We inspect the significance of one entry XiXi at any point of the tree and proceed to the left or to the correct subbranch, based on the (binary) response. If we hit a tree, we will discover the forecast (generally the leaves as the most popular value of the accessible courses is a straightforward statistical figure of the dataset). In contrast to global model linear or polynomial regression (a predictive formula should be contained in the whole data space), trees attempt to split the data space in a sufficiently small part, where a simply different model can be applied on each side. For each xx information, the non-leaf portion of the tree is simply the process to determine what model we use for the classification of each information (i.e. which leaf).
5. Naive Bayes
A Naive Bayes classification is a supervised algorithm for machinery-learning which utilizes the theorem of Bayes, which implies statistical independence of its characteristics. The theorem depends on the naive premise that input factors are autonomous from each other, that is, that when an extra variable is provided there is no way to understand anything about other factors. It has demonstrated to be a classifier with excellent outcomes regardless of this hypothesis. The Bavarian Theorem, relying on a conditional probability, or in easy words, is used for the Naive Bayes classifications as a probability of a case (A) occurring considering that another incident (B) has already occurred. In essence, the theorem enables an update of the hypothesis every moment fresh proof is presented.
The equation below expresses Bayes’ Theorem in the language of probability:
Let’s explain what each of these terms means.
“P” is the symbol to denote probability.
P(A | B) = The probability of event A (hypothesis) occurring given that B (evidence) has occurred.
P(B | A) = The probability of the event B (evidence) occurring given that A (hypothesis) has occurred.
P(A) = The probability of event B (hypothesis) occurring.
P(B) = The probability of event A (evidence) occurring.
6. K-Nearest Neighbors
The KNN is a simple machine study algorithm which classifies an entry using its closest neighbours. The input of information points of particular males and women’s height and weight as shown below should be provided, for instance, by a k-NN algorithm. K-NN can peer into the closest k neighbour (personal) and determine if the entry gender is masculine in order to determine the gender of an unidentified object (green point). This technique is extremely easy and logical, with a strong achievement level for labelling unidentified input.
k-NN is used in a range of machine learning tasks; k-NN, for example, can help in computer vision in hand-written letters and the algorithm is used to identify genes that are contributing to a specific characteristic of the gene expression analysis. Overall, neighbours close to each other offer a mixture of ease and efficiency that makes it an appealing algorithm for many teaching machines.7. Learning Vector Quantization
8. Bagging and Random Forest
A Random Forest is a group of easy tree predictors, each of which is capable of generating an answer when it has a number of predictor values. This reaction requires the form of a class affiliation for classification issues, which combines or classifies a number of indigenous predictor scores with one of the classifications in the dependent variable. Otherwise, the tree reaction is an assessment of the dependent variable considering the predictors for regression difficulties. Breiman has created the Random Forest algorithm.
An arbitrary amount of plain trees are a random forest used to determine the ultimate result. The ensemble of easy trees votes for the most common category for classification issues. Their answers are averaged to get an assessment of the dependent variable for regression problems. With tree assemblies, the forecast precision (i.e. greater capacity to detect fresh information instances) can improve considerably.
The support vector machine(SVM) is a supervised, classifying, and regressing machine learning algorithm. In classification issues, SVMs are more common, and as such, we shall be focusing on that article.SVMs are based on the idea of finding a hyperplane that best divides a dataset into two classes, as shown in the image below.
You can think of a hyperplane as a line that linearly separates and classifies a set of data.
The more our information points are intuitively located from the hyperplane, the more assured that they have been categorized properly. We would, therefore, like to see as far as feasible from our information spots on the right hand of the hyperplane.
So when new test data are added, the class we assign to it will be determined on any side of the hyperplane.
The distance from the hyperplane to the nearest point is called the margin. The aim is to select a hyperplane with as much margin as feasible between the hyperplane and any point in the practice set to give fresh information a higher opportunity to be properly categorized.
But the data is rarely ever as clean as our simple example above. A dataset will often look more like the jumbled balls below which represent a linearly non-separable dataset.
It is essential to switch from a 2D perspective to a 3D perspective to classify a dataset like the one above. Another streamlined instance makes it easier to explain this. Imagine our two balls stood on a board and this booklet is raised abruptly, throwing the balls into the air. You use the cover to distinguish them when the buttons are up in the air. This “raising” of the balls reflects a greater identification of the information. This is known as kernelling.
Our hyperplanes can be no longer a row because we are in three dimensions. It should be a flight now, as shown in the above instance. The concept is to map the information into greater and lower sizes until a hyperplane can be created to separate the information.
10. Boosting and AdaBoost
Boosting is an ensemble technology which tries to build a powerful classification of a set of weak classifiers. This is done using a training data model and then a second model has created that attempts the errors of the first model to be corrected. Until the training set is perfectly predicted or a maximum number of models are added, models are added.
AdaBoost was the first truly effective binary classification boosting algorithm. It is the best point of start for improvement. Most of them are stochastic gradient boosters, based on AdaBoost modern boosting techniques.
With brief choice trees, AdaBoost is used. After the creation of the first tree, each exercise instance uses the performance of the tree to weigh how much attention should be given to the next tree to be built. Data that are difficult to forecast will be provided more weight, while cases that are easily predictable will be less important. Sequentially, models are produced one by one to update each of the weights on the teaching sessions which impact on the study of the next tree. After all, trees have been produced, fresh information are predicted and how precise it was on the training data weighs the efficiency of each tree.
Since the algorithm is so careful about correcting errors, it is essential that smooth information is deleted with outliers.
In the end, every beginner in data science has one basic starting questions that which algorithm is best for all the cases. The response to the issue is not straightforward and depends on many factors like information magnitude, quality and type of information; time required for computation; the importance of the assignment; and purpose of information
Even an experienced data scientist cannot say which algorithm works best before distinct algorithms are tested. While many other machine learning algorithms exist, they are the most common. This is a nice starting point to understand if you are a beginner for machine learning.
Machine Learning is the word of the mouth for everyone involved in the analytics world. Gone are those days of the traditional manual approach of taking key business decisions. Machine Learning is the future and is here to stay.
However, the term Machine Learning is not a new one. It was there since the advent of computers but has grown tremendously in the last decade due to the massive amounts of data that’s getting generated, and the enormous computational power that modern-day system possesses.
Machine Learning is the art of Predictive Analytics where a system is trained on a set of data to learn patterns from it and then tested to make predictions on a new set of data. The more accurate the predictions are, the better the model performs. However, the metric for the accuracy of the model varies based on the domain one is working in.
Predictive Analytics has several usages in the modern world. It has been implemented in almost all sectors to make better business decisions and to stay ahead in the market. In this blog post, we would look into one of the key areas where Machine Learning has made its mark is the Customer Churn Prediction.
What is Customer Churn?
For any e-commerce business or businesses in which everything depends on the behavior of customers, retaining them is the number one priority for the organization. Customer churn is the process in which the customers stop using the products or services of a business.
Customer Churn or Customer Attrition is a better business strategy than acquiring the services of a new customer. Retaining the present customers is cost-effective, and a bit of effort could regain the trust that the customers might have lost on the services.
On the other hand, to get the service of the new customer, a business needs to spend a lot of time, and money on to the sales, and marketing department, more lucrative offers, and most importantly earning their trust. It would take more recourses to earn the trust of a new customer than to retain the existing one.
What are the Causes of Customer Churn?
There is a multitude of reasons why a customer could decide to stop using the services of a company. However, a couple of such reasons overwhelms others in the market.
Customer Service – This is one of the most important aspects on which business the growth of a business depends. Any customer could leave the services of a company if it’s poor or doesn’t live up to the expectations. A study showed that nearly ninety percent of the customer leave due to poor experience as modern era deems exceptional services, and experiences.
When a customer doesn’t receive such eye-catching experience from a business, it tends to lean towards its competitors leaving behind negative reviews in various social media from their past experiences which also stops potential new customers from using the service. Another study showed that almost fifty-nine percent of the people aged between twenty-five, and thirty share negative client experiences online.
Thus, poor customer experience not only results in the loss of a single customer but multiple customers as well which hinders the growth of the business in the process.
Onboarding Process – Whenever the business is looking to attract a new customer to use their service, it is necessary that the on-boarding process which includes timely follow-ups, regular communications, updates about new products, and so on are being followed, and maintained consistently over a period of time.
What are some of the Disadvantages of Customer Churn?
A customer’s lifetime value and the growth of the business maintains a direct relationship between each other i.e., more chances that the customer would churn, the less is the potential for the business to grow. Even a good marketing strategy would not save a business if it continues to lose customers at regular intervals due to other reasons and spend more money on acquiring new customers who are not guaranteed to be loyal.
There is a lot of debate surrounding customer churn and acquiring new customers because the former is much more cost-effective and ensures business growth. Thus companies spend almost seven times more effort, and time to retain old customers than acquire a new one. The global value of a customer lost is nearly two hundred, and forty-three dollars which makes churning a costly affair for any business.
What Strategies could a Business Undertake to prevent Customer Churn?
Customer Churn hinders or prevents the growth of an organization. Thus it is necessary that any business or organization has a flexible system in place to prevent the churn of customers and ensure its growth in the process. The companies need to find the metrics to identify the probability of a customer leaving, and chalk out strategies for improvement of its services, and products.
The calculation of the possibility of the customer churning varies from one business to another. There is no one fixed methodology that every organization uses to prevent churn. A churn rate could represent a variety of things such as – the total number of customers lost, the cost of the business loss, what percentage of the customers left in comparison to the total customer count of the organization, and so on.
Improving the customer experience should be the first strategy on the agenda of any business to prevent churn. Apart from that, marinating customer loyalty by providing better, personalized services is another important step one could undertake. Additionally, many organizations sent out customer survey time, and again to keep track of their customer experiences, and also seek reasons from them who have already churned.
A company should understand and learn about its customers beforehand. The amount of data that’s available all over the internet is sufficient to analyze a customer’s behavior, his likes, and dislikes, and improve the services based on their needs. All these measures, if taken with utmost care could help a business prevent its customers from churning.
Telecom Customer Churn Prediction
Previously, we learned how Predictive Analytics is being employed by various businesses to prevent any event from occurring and reduce the chances of losing by putting the right system in place. As customer churn is a global issue, we would now see how Machine Learning could be used to predict the customer churn of a telecom company.
Gender – Determines whether the customer is a male or a female.
Senior Citizen – A binary variable with values as 1 for senior citizen and 0 for not a senior citizen.
Partner – Values as ‘yes’ or ‘no based on whether the customer has a partner.
Dependents – Values as ‘yes’ or ‘no’ based on whether the customer has dependents.
Tenure – A numerical feature which gives the total number of months the customer stayed with the company.
Phone Service – Values as ‘yes’ or ‘no’ based on whether the customer has phone service.
Multiple Lines – Values as ‘yes’ or ‘no’ based on whether the customer has multiple lines.
Internet Service – The internet service providers the customer has. The value is ‘No’ if the customer doesn’t have internet service.
Online Security – Values as ‘yes’ or ‘no’ based on whether the customer has online security.
Online Backup – Values as ‘yes’ or ‘no’ based on whether the customer has online backup.
Device Protection – Values as ‘yes’ or ‘no’ based on whether the customer has device protection.
Tech Support – Values as ‘yes’ or ‘no’ based on whether the customer has tech support.
Streaming TV – Values as ‘yes’ or ‘no’ based on whether the customer has a streaming TV.
Streaming Movies – Values as ‘yes’ or ‘no’ based on whether the customer has streaming movies.
Contract – This column gives the term of the contract for the customer which could be a year, two years or month-to-month.
Paperless Billing – Values as ‘yes’ or ‘no’ based on whether the customer has a paperless billing.
Payment Method – It gives the payment method used by the customer which could be a credit card, Bank Transfer, Mailed Check, or Electronic Check.
Monthly Charges – This is the total charge incurred by the customer monthly.
Total Charges – The value of the total amount charged.
Churn – This is our target variable which needs to be predicted. Its values are either Yes (if the customer has churned), or No (if the customer is still with the company)
The following steps are the walkthrough of the code which we have written to predict the customer churn.
First, we have imported all the necessary libraries we would need to proceed further in our code
Just to get an idea of how our data looks likes, we have read the CSV file and printed out the first five rows of our data in the form of a data frame
Once, the data is read, some pre-processing needed to be done to check for null, outliers, and so on
Once the pre-processing is done, the next step is to get the relevant features to use in our model for the prediction. For that, we have done some data visualization to find out the relevancy of each predictor variables
After the data has been plotted, it is observed that Gender doesn’t have much influence on churn, whereas senior citizens are more likely to leave the company. Also, Phone Service has more influence on Churn than Multiple Lines
A model cannot take categorical data as input, hence those features are encoded into numbers to be used in our prediction
Based on our observation, we have taken the features which have more influence on churn prediction
The data is scaled, and split it into train and test set
We have fitted the Random Forest classifier to our new scaled data
Predicted the result and using the confusion matrix as the metric for our model
The model gives us (1155 + 190 = 1345) correct predictions and (273 + 143 = 416) incorrect predictions
The entire code could be found in this GitHub link
We have built a basic Random Forest Classifier model to predict the Customer Churn for a telecom company. The model could be improved with further manipulation of the parameters of the classifier and also by applying different algorithms.
I have just completed my survey of data (from articles, blogs, white papers, university websites, curated tech websites, and research papers all available online) about predictive analytics.
And I have a reason to believe that we are standing on the brink of a revolution that will transform everything we know about data science and predictive analytics.
But before we go there, you need to know: why the hype about predictive analytics? What is predictive analytics?
Let’s cover that first.
Importance of Predictive Analytics
By PhotoMix Ltd
According to Wikipedia:
Predictive analytics is an area of statistics that deals with extracting information from data and using it to predict trends and behavior patterns. The enhancement of predictive web analytics calculates statistical probabilities of future events online. Predictive analytics statistical techniques include data modeling, machine learning, AI, deep learning algorithms and data mining.
Predictive analytics is why every business wants data scientists. Analytics is not just about answering questions, it is also about finding the right questions to answer. The applications for this field are many, nearly every human endeavor can be listed in the excerpt from Wikipedia that follows listing the applications of predictive analytics:
Predictive analytics is used in actuarial science, marketing, financial services, insurance, telecommunications, retail, travel, mobility, healthcare, child protection, pharmaceuticals, capacity planning, social networking, and a multitude of numerous other fields ranging from the military to online shopping websites, Internet of Things (IoT), and advertising.
In a very real sense, predictive analytics means applying data science models to given scenarios that forecast or generate a score of the likelihood of an event occurring. The data generated today is so voluminous that experts estimate that less than 1% is actually used for analysis, optimization, and prediction. In the case of Big Data, that estimate falls to 0.01% or less.
Common Example Use-Cases of Predictive Analytics
Components of Predictive Analytics
A skilled data scientist can utilize the prediction scores to optimize and improve the profit margin of a business or a company by a massive amount. For example:
If you buy a book for children on the Amazon website, the website identifies that you have an interest in that author and that genre and shows you more books similar to the one you just browsed or purchased.
YouTube also has a very similar algorithm behind its video suggestions when you view a particular video. The site identifies (or rather, the analytics algorithms running on the site identifies) more videos that you would enjoy watching based upon what you are watching now. In ML, this is called a recommender system.
Netflix is another famous example where recommender systems play a massive role in the suggestions for ‘shows you may like’ section, and the recommendations are well-known for their accuracy in most cases
Google AdWords (text ads at the top of every Google Search) that are displayed is another example of a machine learning algorithm whose usage can be classified under predictive analytics.
Departmental stores often optimize products so that common groups are easy to find. For example, the fresh fruits and vegetables would be close to the health foods supplements and diet control foods that weight-watchers commonly use. Coffee/tea/milk and biscuits/rusks make another possible grouping. You might think this is trivial, but department stores have recorded up to 20% increase in sales when such optimal grouping and placement was performed – again, through a form of analytics.
Bank loans and home loans are often approved with the credit scores of a customer. How is that calculated? An expert system of rules, classification, and extrapolation of existing patterns – you guessed it – using predictive analytics.
Allocating budgets in a company to maximize the total profit in the upcoming year is predictive analytics. This is simple at a startup, but imagine the situation in a company like Google, with thousands of departments and employees, all clamoring for funding. Predictive Analytics is the way to go in this case as well.
IoT (Internet of Things) smart devices are one of the most promising applications of predictive analytics. It will not be too long before the sensor data from aircraft parts use predictive analytics to tell its operators that it has a high likelihood of failure. Ditto for cars, refrigerators, military equipment, military infrastructure and aircraft, anything that uses IoT (which is nearly every embedded processing device available in the 21st century).
Fraud detection, malware detection, hacker intrusion detection, cryptocurrency hacking, and cryptocurrency theft are all ideal use cases for predictive analytics. In this case, the ML system detects anomalous behavior on an interface used by the hackers and cybercriminals to identify when a theft or a fraud is taking place, has taken place, or will take place in the future. Obviously, this is a dream come true for law enforcement agencies.
So now you know what predictive analytics is and what it can do. Now let’s come to the revolutionary new technology.
End-to-End Predictive Analytics Product – for non-tech users!
In a remarkable first, a research team at MIT, USA have created a new science called social physics, or sociophysics. Now, much about this field is deliberately kept highly confidential, because of its massive disruptive power as far as data science is concerned, especially predictive analytics. The only requirement of this science is that the system being modeled has to be a human-interaction based environment. To keep the discussion simple, we shall explain the entire system in points.
All systems in which human beings are involved follow scientific laws.
These laws have been identified, verified experimentally and derived scientifically.
Bylaws we mean equations, such as (just an example) Newton’s second law: F = m.a (Force equals mass times acceleration)
These equations establish laws of invariance – that are the same regardless of which human-interaction system is being modeled.
Hence the term social physics – like Maxwell’s laws of electromagnetism or Newton’s theory of gravitation, these laws are a new discovery that are universal as long as the agents interacting in the system are humans.
The invariance and universality of these laws have two important consequences:
The need for large amounts of data disappears – Because of the laws, many of the predictive capacities of the model can be obtained with a minimal amount of data. Hence small companies now have the power to use analytics that was mostly used by the FAMGA(Facebook, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Apple) set of companies since they were the only ones with the money to maintain Big Data warehouses and data lakes.
There is no need for data cleaning. Since the model being used is canonical, it is independent of data problems like outliers, missing data, nonsense data, unavailable data, and data corruption. This is due to the orthogonality of the model ( a Knowledge Sphere) being constructed and the data available.
Performance is superior to deep learning, Google TensorFlow, Python, R, Julia, PyTorch, and scikit-learn. Consistently, the model has outscored the latter models in Kaggle competitions, without any data pre-processing or data preparation and cleansing!
Data being orthogonal to interpretation and manipulation means that encrypted data can be used as-is. There is no need to decrypt encrypted data to perform a data science task or experiment. This is significant because the independence of the model functioning even for encrypted data opens the door to blockchain technology and blockchain data to be used in standard data science tasks. Furthermore, this allows hashing techniques to be used to hide confidential data and perform the data mining task without any knowledge of what the data indicates.
Are You Serious?
That’s a valid question given these claims! And that is why I recommend everyone who has the slightest or smallest interest in data science to visit and completely read and explore the following links:
Now when I say completely read, I mean completely read. Visit every section and read every bit of text that is available on the three sites above. You will soon understand why this is such a revolutionary idea.
These links above are articles about the social physics book and about the science of sociophysics in general.
For more details, please visit the following articles on Medium. These further document Endor.coin, a cryptocurrency built around the idea of sharing data with the public and getting paid for using the system and usage of your data. Preferably, read all, if busy, at least read Article No, 1.
Upon every data set, the first action performed by the Endor Analytics Platform is clustering, also popularly known as automatic classification. Endor constructs what is known as a Knowledge Sphere, a canonical representation of the data set which can be constructed even with 10% of the data volume needed for the same project when deep learning was used.
Creation of the Knowledge Sphere takes 1-4 hours for a billion records dataset (which is pretty standard these days).
Now an explanation of the mathematics behind social physics is beyond our scope, but I will include the change in the data science process when the Endor platform was compared to a deep learning system built to solve the same problem the traditional way (with a 6-figure salary expert data scientist).
From Appendix A: Social Physics Explained, Section 3.1, pages 28-34 (some material not included):
Prediction Demonstration using the Endor System:
Data: The data that was used in this example originated from a retail financial investment platform and contained the entire investment transactions of members of an investment community. The data was anonymized and made public for research purposes at MIT (the data can be shared upon request).
Summary of the dataset: – 7 days of data – 3,719,023 rows – 178,266 unique users
Automatic Clusters Extraction: Upon first analysis of the data the Endor system detects and extracts “behavioral clusters” – groups of users whose data dynamics violates the mathematical invariances of the Social Physics. These clusters are based on all the columns of the data, but is limited only to the last 7 days – as this is the data that was provided to the system as input.
Behavioural Clusters Summary
Number of clusters:268,218 Clusters sizes: 62 (Mean), 15 (Median), 52508 (Max), 5 (Min) Clusters per user:164 (Mean), 118 (Median), 703 (Max), 2 (Min) Users in clusters: 102,770 out of the 178,266 users Records per user: 6 (Median), 33 (Mean): applies only to users in clusters
Prediction Queries The following prediction queries were defined: 1. New users to become “whales”: users who joined in the last 2 weeks that will generate at least $500 in commission in the next 90 days 2. Reducing activity : users who were active in the last week that will reduce activity by 50% in the next 30 days (but will not churn, and will still continue trading) 3. Churn in “whales”: currently active “whales” (as defined by their activity during the last 90 days), who were active in the past week, to become inactive for the next 30 days 4. Will trade in Apple share for the first time: users who had never invested in Apple share, and would buy it for the first time in the coming 30 days
Knowledge Sphere Manifestation of Queries It is again important to note that the definition of the search queries is completely orthogonal to the extraction of behavioral clusters and the generation of the Knowledge Sphere, which was done independently of the queries definition.
Therefore, it is interesting to analyze the manifestation of the queries in the clusters detected by the system: Do the clusters contain information that is relevant to the definition of the queries, despite the fact that:
1. The clusters were extracted in a fully automatic way, using no semantic information about the data, and –
2. The queries were defined after the clusters were extracted, and did not affect this process.
This analysis is done by measuring the number of clusters that contain a very high concentration of “samples”; In other words, by looking for clusters that contain “many more examples than statistically expected”.
A high number of such clusters (provided that it is significantly higher than the amount received when randomly sampling the same population) proves the ability of this process to extract valuable relevant semantic insights in a fully automatic way.
Comparison to Google TensorFlow
In this section a comparison between prediction process of the Endor system and Google’s TensorFlow is presented. It is important to note that TensorFlow, like any other Deep Learning library, faces some difficulties when dealing with data similar to the one under discussion:
1. An extremely uneven distribution of the number of records per user requires some canonization of the data, which in turn requires:
2. Some manual work, done by an individual who has at least some understanding of data science.
3. Some understanding of the semantics of the data, that requires an investment of time, as well as access to the owner or provider of the data
4. A single-class classification, using an extremely uneven distribution of positive vs. negative samples, tends to lead to the overfitting of the results and require some non-trivial maneuvering.
This again necessitates the involvement of an expert in Deep Learning (unlike the Endor system which can be used by Business, Product or Marketing experts, with no perquisites in Machine Learning or Data Science).
An expert in Deep Learning spent 2 weeks crafting a solution that would be based on TensorFlow and has sufficient expertise to be able to handle the data. The solution that was created used the following auxiliary techniques:
1.Trimming the data sequence to 200 records per customer, and padding the streams for users who have less than 200 records with neutral records.
2.Creating 200 training sets, each having 1,000 customers (50% known positive labels, 50% unknown) and then using these training sets to train the model.
3.Using sequence classification (RNN with 128 LSTMs) with 2 output neurons (positive, negative), with the overall result being the difference between the scores of the two.
Observations (all statistics available in the white paper – and it’s stunning)
1.Endor outperforms Tensor Flow in 3 out of 4 queries, and results in the same accuracy in the 4th . 2.The superiority of Endor is increasingly evident as the task becomes “more difficult” – focusing on the top-100 rather than the top-500.
3.There is a clear distinction between “less dynamic queries” (becoming a whale, churn, reduce activity” – for which static signals should likely be easier to detect) than the “Who will trade in Apple for the first time” query, which are (a) more dynamic, and (b) have a very low baseline, such that for the latter, Endor is 10x times more accurate!
4.As previously mentioned – the Tensor Flow results illustrated here employ 2 weeks of manual improvements done by a Deep Learning expert, whereas the Endor results are 100% automatic and the entire prediction process in Endor took 4 hours.
Clearly, the path going forward for predictive analytics and data science is Endor, Endor, and Endor again!
Predictions for the Future
Personally, one thing has me sold – the robustness of the Endor system to handle noise and missing data. Earlier, this was the biggest bane of the data scientist in most companies (when data engineers are not available). 90% of the time of a professional data scientist would go into data cleaning and data preprocessing since our ML models were acutely sensitive to noise. This is the first solution that has eliminated this ‘grunt’ level work from data science completely.
The second prediction: the Endor system works upon principles of human interaction dynamics. My intuition tells me that data collected at random has its own dynamical systems that appear clearly to experts in complexity theory. I am completely certain that just as this tool developed a prediction tool with human society dynamical laws, data collected in general has its own laws of invariance. And the first person to identify these laws and build another Endor-style platform on them will be at the top of the data science pyramid – the alpha unicorn.
Final prediction – democratizing data science means that now data scientists are not required to have six-figure salaries. The success of the Endor platform means that anyone can perform advanced data science without resorting to TensorFlow, Python, R, Anaconda, etc. This platform will completely disrupt the entire data science technological sector. The first people to master it and build upon it to formalize the rules of invariance in the case of general data dynamics will for sure make a killing.
It is an exciting time to be a data science researcher!
Data Science is a broad field and it would require quite a few things to learn to master all these skills.